Assessment of Cape Town Desalination

The Problem

For my Master’s thesis in the Erasmus Mundus Joint European Master in System Dynamics², I focused on the complexities of water resource management in Cape Town, a city on the verge of ‘day zero’—the point when its dams would run dry after six years of drought. The research explored how financial, socio-economic, and environmental factors would interact if long-term desalination were added to the city’s water supply.

The Challenge

The main challenge was understanding how different factors—finance, environment, and community needs—would come together to determine the viability of desalination. A broad range of stakeholders was involved, including government officials, engineers, environmental experts, community representatives, and private funders. The goal was to ensure the model reflected diverse perspectives and concerns.

The Approach

Working closely with researchers from the universities of Cape Town and Stellenbosch, as well as local stakeholders, I built a system dynamics model that captured the complexities of desalination. A key component was developing a visual interface³ in Stella Architect. This made the decision-making tool accessible to both experts and non-experts. It helps them make informed decisions about Cape Town’s future water supply¹.

Results

The resulting tool provided a clear decision-making platform for water management in Cape Town. It showed how desalination could not only increase water supply but also reduce demand by promoting more sustainable use. By considering multiple perspectives, the tool aimed to contribute to a more sustainable future for the city’s water supply².

Thoughts

This project was incredibly rewarding. The urgency of the drought and the looming ‘day zero’ gave the work real purpose. It was a hands-on project that sharpened my understanding of Systems Thinking and the importance of balancing complex stakeholder needs.

Role(s)

• Conducted interviews with stakeholders in Cape Town under the guidance of a mentor.

• Developed detailed models and sub-models on the viability of desalination for Cape Town.

• Quantified the model and presented the results using a Visual User Interface³.

• Wrote and defended my Master’s Thesis for the European Master in System Dynamics at Nova University, Lisbon².

Cliënt:

University of Cape Town

Project duration:

1 year

Links and papers:

Conference proceedings System Dynamics Society, Albequerque NM 2019 ¹

Master’s Thesis (Graded 18/20 on Nova University Lisbon) ²

Link to interface ³