The Delphi Method
The Delphi Method is a structured, iterative process used to gather expert opinions and achieve consensus on complex issues. Over the span of three to four months, the Delphi Method process involves planning, recruiting experts, and developing an initial questionnaire. Participants complete and refine questionnaires over multiple rounds, incorporating System Dynamics modeling along the way. In the first session, they provide initial responses to a set of questions. These responses are then summarized, modeled, and key points are presented in the second session. Participants discuss the findings with the model as its basis, offer feedback, and refine their views and subsequently the model. This process helps to identify areas of agreement and divergence, leading to informed decision-making and consensus.
By the end of this three-month Delphi study, participants will have collaboratively developed and refined a detailed System Dynamics model. This model will be the result of multiple rounds of expert input and workshop sessions, encapsulating key insights and consensus points. The final deliverable will include a comprehensive report that outlines the model, highlights key findings, and suggests actionable strategies. This report will serve as a practical tool for decision-making, providing data-driven scenarios and potential interventions to address the complex problem under study.
Planning could be as follows: (N.B. described is a somewhat ‘standard’ procedure of the Delphi method. each model is tailored to a specific problem, so the actual sessions may be different from what is described.)